Bakery sales are feeling the squeeze. According to food market research firm 210 Analytics, total bakery sales for the four weeks ended March 29 fell 1.7% in dollars and 4.7% in units year over year — lagging behind overall food and beverage growth of 2.8%. While GLP-1 drugs often get the blame, analyst Anne-Marie Roerink points to deeper forces at play: a widening economic divide and a demographic shift that's pulling consumers in opposite directions. Higher-income shoppers are leaning into premium and gourmet baked goods, while budget-conscious consumers are gravitating toward private label. The result? A category under pressure — and in the middle of a reshape.

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